The danger of full-scale war is escalating in Bosnia, as Serbs retaliate against air strikes and even humanitarian convoys are blocked. But according to Toward Freedom correspondent Gary Shapiro, who is in Sarajevo to develop peace centers and promote a cease fire, the best hope is a broad based dialogue to overcome mistrust and narrow nationalism.
SARAJEVO, Dec. 3 -- I am sitting in an unheated room in Sarajevo typing these words. Along with 300,000 residents in this city under siege, I am virtually trapped.
For the past two weeks, I have been here in the Bosnian capital, working with local people to help organize the "People Connection" project. The project involves linking Bosnians with international people to establish peace centers that will conflict resolution training, support citizen initiatives, facilitate contacts and activities between Bosnians on all sides of the conflict and organize a citizens' peace process to address the issues that led to war and to develop strategies on how to rebuild the country.
When I came here, the Bosnia army was on the offensive, having captured territory from the Serbs for the first time in the 2 _ year long war, especially in the northwest corner called "Bihac". Since my last visit in June, the public mood had hardened considerably. Now everyone is saying that war is the only solution. Only by continued fighting, most people are saying, could the Serbs be persuaded to accept the Contact Group Peace Plan which would give 51 percent of Bosnia to the Muslim-led government, and 49 percent to the separatist Serb forces who currently control 70 percent. The Bosnian army is getting strong. The Serbs are more demoralized. The tide is turning in favor of the Bosnians.
But during these past two weeks, much of this scenario has crumbled. The Serbs launched fierce counterattacks and re-captured most of the territory they lost. Now they are in a position to conquer the so-called "safe area" of Bihac city. NATO air strikes and stern UN wanrings have only prompted the Serbs to retaliate by holding groups of UN peace keeper as virtual hostages.
The Serb leader, Dr. Karadzic, refused even to meet with the UN Secretary-General, himself widely despised by Bosnians for having done nothing to stop the war. All checkpoints have been closed. Sarajevo's airport is closed. No humanitarian convoys have been able to move.
The danger is palpable here every day. There has been sniper shooting outside the apartment building where I live. When I leave in the morning, I must zig-zag across an open area to avoid snipers. This afternoon, a powerful mortar shell exploded against the building across the street from our office.
We hear the whistling sound as the shells fly over our roof. Electricity in our flat comes on for a few hours every 4 days. The gas ran out 2 days ago. The now familiar nightly refrain of my landlady is "nema struje, nema plin, nema voda, nima nitcha:" meaning "no electricity, no gas, no water, no nothing." To cheer her up, I say "But ah, there's still life; we're still alive." To which she replies, "You call this life?"
Most people still talk of war, but privately the feeling is there is no way to win, no way to militarily force the Serbs to do anything. The Contact Group talks about modifications in its 51-49 proposal, but the Serbs now insist on total sovereignty of the areas they control, including the right to unify with Serbia.
It appears to me now, as it did previously, that only by direct and broad-based dialogue and negotiation between the sides that would address the underlying historical, social, and psychological issues, can a viable solution be found. One problem is the deep hatred, fear, mistrust and trauma after all that has happened that makes most people hostile to the very mention of the word dialogue. Another problem is that all power, on all sides, remains in the hands of small political and military elites that are nationalist oriented, that insist on fighting over territory, that have refused to stop fighting long enough for some sort of compromise solution to emerge.
There are individuals and citizen groups throughout the region that want dialogue. They need our support and assistance to prepare and establish that dialogue. And, I believe, we must put more pressure on our leaders and the UN to support those individuals and groups so that a broad-based dialogue can take place.
The UN had so far put very little effort into building citizen contacts between the sides. It's time to apply the world's efforts and abilities to bring people together here. One option is to put aside all peace plans and persuade the sides to accept a 6-12 month cease-fire, during which time the dialogue could take place.
I will be in the former Yugoslavia for one more month. During this time, I plan to visit Serbia and Serb-held territory in Bosnia to discuss the possibility for more citizen contacts, and for opening up peace centers on their side. Some people think I am crazy, some think I'm simply wrong, but everyone says, "go ahead and try." So I will. I keep my spirits up by envisioning that something good will come out of it.
The situation is bleak, but not hopeless. However, right now, the main concern of Sarajevans is not dialogue or even peace, but survival. My landlady talks about burning her furniture this winter to keep warm and I wonder if I'll be lucky enough to avoid shells and sniper bullets for a few more days until I am able to leave the city, possibly by hiking over a mountain in the dark. My landlady can't leave.